Linking cross-impact probabilistic scenarios to Input-Output models

Since the pioneering contribution by W. Leontief in his 1973 Nobel Prize
lecture (Leontief, 1974), input-output models have been often associated
with world models attempting to estimate global environmental impacts of
economic growth. Leontief, Carter and Petri (1977) also introduced the concept
of scenarios, refering to possible future developments of the world economy
and used their input-output models to quantify environmental impacts and
related economic consequences. However, if a major objective of social science
is to improve decision-making processes related to social issues, we need
methods for integrating these expert opinions about global systems with an
understanding of how given subsystems function within the same reality. In
this sense, cross-impact analysis becomes an embryonic method of potential
interest. This paper is concentrated on the possibility of linking cross-impact methods
for probabilistic scenarios with world social accounting models including
environmental issues, with the main purpose of improving global decision-making
processes vis-à-vis sustainable development and other issues at the centre of
society’s concerns, as well as helping to foresee future events and future impacts
of human activity on the global economy and on society at large.
Emilio Fontela Montes
José Manuel Rueda Cantuche
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