The improving of forecast from an aggregate variable: application to GDP growth rates for a sample of European Countries

The present work empirically illustrates how the forecast of the annual output
growth rates (GR) (where the output is the real gross domestic product (GDP)),
from a sample of European countries could be improved. This improvement
has been possible by means of using a database that has let us to calculate the
aggregated GR of the GDP of the countries sample.
When we include the common GR in the AR(3) model of each country’s
data, we have observed a substantially improving of one-step-ahead forecasts
of GR, due to this common variable.
Jesús Basulto Santos
Francisco Javier Ortega Irizo
Attached file: 

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