Is the Dollar’s Hegemonic Role in the International Monetary System Sustainable?

Since the signing of the Bretton Woods Agreements, the US dollar has formed the central axis of the International Monetary System (IMS). However, is this hegemonic situation sustainable in the medium to long term? This study seeks to answer that question using a prospective approach based on the Complex Adaptive Systems (CASs) underlying Complexity Economics. The greatest danger facing the current IMS as a CAS lies in its endogenous evolution. The modern Triffin dilemma and a tendency towards multipolarity in the economic system –as opposed to the continued unipolarity of the monetary system– make it essential to adapt the system. However, no such adaptation is currently taking place. Thus, with no need for any external shock, the very nature of the IMS leads to an eroding of confidence in the dollar in the medium/long term. In order for the IMS to adapt and reconstruct itself, co-operation between interactive agents participating in the system is essential.
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